Russia’s 2012 Concept of Migration Policy:Are Chinese immigrants a solution to the Russian Far East’s demographic problems?
Russia is currently facing numerous demographic problems, which are leading to a declining and aging population. In particular, the Far East faces a demographic crisis due to the low birth rate, high death rate, and westward internal migration. In response to these demographic problems President Vladimir Putin signed the 2012 Concept of Migration Policy, which hopes to utilize immigrants to mediate population decline and to fill in emerging gaps in the labor market. This paper focuses on the potential for success of this policy in the Russian Far East and the potential for Chinese immigrants to mediate the demographic problems of the region. The literature on replacement migration suggests that policies increasing the flow of immigrants into Russia may be able to stabilize the country’s population, but will be unable to maintain a steady labor force and population support ratio. However, even if the government is able to use immigrants to stabilize the population size, the number required would likely cause high levels of conflict in Russia. This is particularly true in the Russian Far East. Russia has a long history of interacting with Chinese immigrants in the Far East and Siberia. The Chinese were often seen as threats to Russia’s security, health, and culture. However, the Russian government also faced a shortage of workers so they wished to use the Chinese as laborers. Thus, Russian policy towards the Chinese in the pre-Soviet times often revolved around conflicting policies of using the Chinese as laborers, but preventing them from interacting with society. Many of the same issues of intolerance towards the Chinese immigrants are seen in the Far East today. The Chinese are seen as a threat to the region, as criminals, and as takers of jobs. In particular, there is a high level of intolerance among the youth. The significant level of intolerance Russian youths hold towards the Chinese does not bode well for the possibility of using Chinese immigrants to mediate the demographic and labor force problems in the region. However, it is likely that the government will force the policies through at the national level. To increase the possible effectiveness of the Concept of Migration and to decrease the potential for conflict certain steps should be taken. Agencies being tasked with implementing the policy need to be given the authority and resources to be effective. However, they must also be held accountable for their failures. The government needs to communicate clearly the nature of the policy and why it is being implemented, as well as providing the responsible agencies with the authority and the funding to effectively implement the program. Rule of law needs to be enforced in the region and the level of corruption needs to be reduced, particularly among border officials and police officers. Research needs to be done on the economic impact Chinese immigrants have on the region, as economics plays a substantial role in how immigrant are viewed. Overall, it will be very difficult for Russia to significantly increase the number of Chinese in the Far East as a way to mediate the declining population without creating conflict.
Slavic Studies, Russian Far East, Chinese Immigration
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