MODELLING THE EPIDEMIOLOGY, ECOLOGY, AND CONTROL OF AEDES-BORNE DISEASES

Aedes-borne diseases are a major contributor to human mortality and morbidity worldwide. In this thesis, I used mathematical and statistical modelling to generate new insights and knowledge about the epidemiology and ecology of Aedes-borne diseases as well as the impact of Aedes control on disease transmission at global and metropolitan scales. First, I developed a mathematical modelling framework integrating travel, demographic, climate, entomological, and human case data and identified 24 locations at a high risk of cryptic Zika virus spread during the 2015—2016 global epidemic. Next, I examined how different environmental and anthropogenic variables influence the spatio-temporal variation of Aedes abundance in Singapore’s high-rise public residential zones. Last, I developed an agent-based model to study the time-varying impact of sustained Aedes control in a wide range of dengue endemic settings. The results of my studies are of direct relevance to the making of evidence-based public health policies going forward.

Author dc:creator

• SUN HAOYANG

• Aedes-borne diseases,Dengue, Zika, Modelling