Experiments in numerical forecasting of tropical storm movement

Numerical prediction is rapidly becoming the most accurate approach to forecasting tropical cyclones. The numerical model in this study utilizes the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Weather Facility's (FNWF) so-called decomposition (SR) fields to produce geostrophic steering currents for tropical storms and/or hurricanes and typhoons. Fifteen of the 1965 hurricanes and typhoons were used to obtain over 200 twelve and twenty-four hour storm predictions, in one-hour time steps, for each of the following FNWF analyses: 1000, 500, 200, 1000/500, 1000/200, and 500/200 -mb SR fields. Results indicate that the 500-mb SR fields, including a statistical correction for latitude and/or longitude, yielded the least forecast error for Pacific typhoons with average 12 and 24-hour storm errors of 69 nm and 154 nm, respectively. Forecasts for Atlantic hurricanes verified best for 12-hour forecasts at 1000 mb, using a similar geographical modification, with an average error of 97 nm. For 24 hours the hurricanes were steered best at 500 mb, with modification, resulting in an average forecast error of 177 nm.

Department dc:contributor.department

Meteorology and Oceanography

Grantor dc:publisher

Monterey, California. U.S. Naval Postgraduate School

Year dc:date.issued

1966

Author dc:creator

• Kerr, James Earl

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Renard, Robert J.

Statement dc:rights

• This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.

Language dc:language.iso

en_US

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/10945/9513

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/9513