THE APPLICATION OF THE MARSUPIAL AND ROTATING CONVECTION PARADIGMS TO UNDERSTANDING THE TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AND INTENSIFICATION OF HURRICANE MICHAEL (2018)

This thesis examines the genesis and intensification of Hurricane Michael (2018), which formed in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea on October 7, 2018. Using the Marsupial and Rotating Convection Paradigms, the study identifies the dynamic and thermodynamic processes influencing the development of the protective “pouch” that supported tropical cyclogenesis and also the principal dynamic elements of the intensification in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in Mexico Beach, Florida. Hurricane Michael’s genesis was unique, occurring near land under complex meteorological conditions, including strong vertical wind shear and the absence of classic Cape Verde–type characteristics. Data from the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS), NOAA satellite imagery, and upper-air soundings are analyzed to investigate precursors to the storm’s formation. Results suggest that despite unfavorable large-scale environmental conditions, such as weak El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals and strong vertical wind shear, smaller-scale processes such as vorticity accretion, and localized convection within the “pouch” played critical roles in Michael’s development into a category five hurricane. The study examines also the evolution of the mean radial velocity, tangential velocity and absolute angular momentum field relative to a slowly moving pouch center during the genesis and intensification.

Department dc:contributor.department

Meteorology (MR)

Grantor dc:publisher

Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School

Year dc:date.issued

2024

Author dc:creator

• Kilmartin, Daniel

Advisors dc:contributor.advisor

• Boothe, Mark A.
• Montgomery, Michael T.

Statement dc:rights

• This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/10945/73477

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/73477