QUANTITATIVE GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS OF OPEN-SOURCE DATA TO PROVIDE MEASURES OF EFFECTIVENESS OF OPERATIONS IN THE INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

Evaluating the effectiveness of U.S. military information operations (IO) remains a complex task for IO professionals. Nevertheless, assessment is an indispensable component of any military operation. This thesis, therefore, seeks to examine the feasibility and practicality of employing data-driven geospatial analysis to assess operations in the information environment (OIE). To achieve this objective, the study utilized open-source data, including social media messages, violent death records, and news articles, to evaluate the impact of U.S. military and coalition forces' leaflet drop operations against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The findings of this research indicate that the leaflet drop operations were associated with an uptick in social media communications, a decline in positive sentiment expressions on social media, and a reduction in violent deaths. Based on the preliminary evidence presented here, it seems that these operations had a mixed overall effect as they stimulated social media discussions and reduced violent deaths but led to a decrease in positive sentiment expressions on social media. However, the overarching message of this study extends beyond the mere utility of social media or the specific outcomes of the operations. Instead, it highlights how a data-driven geospatial approach to operational assessment can yield more rigorous judgments by modeling the behavioral effects of operations.

Department dc:contributor.department

Defense Analysis (DA)

Grantor dc:publisher

Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School

Year dc:date.issued

2023

Author dc:creator

• Bong-Johnson, Ha H.

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Warren, Timothy C.

Statement dc:rights

• This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/10945/72497

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/72497