Retention of U.S. Navy Surface Warfare Officers Before and After the Global War on Terror (GWOT)

This thesis analyzes the effect of the Global War on Terror (GWOT) on the retention of Navy Surface Warfare Officers. Multivariate probit models are used to estimate the effects of commissioning source and other demographic variables on retention. The data set used was based on archival data provided by the Navy via the Navy Econometric Modeling System (NEMS). The data set contained information on Navy Surface Warfare Officers in pay grades O2O6. The archival data set included 73,348 records. In order to analyze the effect of the GWOT on officer retention, we created cohorts based on the entry years of the officers and analyzed retention to the sixth year in their careers. We used a probit model to estimate the partial effect of variables before and after the start of the Global War on Terror. Our retention analysis shows that Naval Academy and ROTC/NROTC graduates are less likely to stay than OCS graduates during both the pre- and post-GWOT periods. Officers with advanced education are less likely to stay than officers with bachelors degrees in the pre-GWOT period but, in the post-GWOT period, they are more likely to stay. We conclude that the GWOT was a significant factor affecting the retention decisions of Navy Surface Warfare Officers, as retention fell for officers making retention decisions in the post-GWOT period.

Department dc:contributor.department

Management

Grantor dc:publisher

Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School

Year dc:date.issued

2012

Authors dc:creator

• Ongun, Kursat
• Bayram, Soner

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Mehay, Stephen L.

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/10945/6848

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/6848