An exploratory study of Sendero Luminoso's dynamics

Any insurgency is a complex and dynamic phenomenon, as is the process of developing agood strategy to counter it. Understanding such types of dynamic complexity demands that strategists expand the boundaries of their mental models. A good strategy does not rely exclusively on a strategist's talent; it is conditioned on a holistic understanding of causal relationships encompassed in the problem and interactions among variables. This thesis analyzes the Peruvian insurgency of Sendero Luminoso through the lens of System Dynamics. This study explores eight fundamental concepts in System Dynamics in relation to the Peruvian insurgency: system parameters, system pattern of behavior, loop dominance, causal relationships, system's feedback structure, system's physical structure, decision-making process, and attributes of tangible quantities. It is demonstrated that useful strategic insight can be obtained from System Dynamics models and subsequent simulations. Furthermore, this work may help to illuminate a few of the factors involved in the defeat of Sendero Luminoso, and might assist policy makers and military strategists to craft efficient counterinsurgency strategies in the future. Finally, this thesis constitutes the initial step for the development of a formal and complete System Dynamics Model of the Peruvian insurgency.

Department dc:contributor.department

Defense Analysis (DA)

Grantor dc:publisher

Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School

Year dc:date.issued

2017

Author dc:creator

• Devoto Gagliardi, Ricardo R.

Advisors dc:contributor.advisor

• Fox, William P.
• Burks, Robert E.

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/10945/56906

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/56906