Assessing sentiment in conflict zones through social media

While it is widely accepted that polling can assess levels of popular support in a geographic area by surveying a cross-segment of its population, it is less well accepted that analysts can use social media analysis to assess sentiment or popular support within the same space. We examine this question by comparing geographically anchored polling and social media data, utilizing over 1.4 million geo-referenced messages sent through the Twitter network from Yemen over the period from October 2013 to January 2014, to assess both support for extremist groups and support to the Yemeni government. From our research, we conclude that social media data, when combined with polling, has a positive impact on analysis. It can also be a reliable source of stand-alone data for evaluating popular support under certain conditions. Therefore, we recommend future research projects focus on improving the quality of social media data and on operational changes to improve the integration of social media analysis into assessment plans.

Department dc:contributor.department

Defense Analysis (DA)

Grantor dc:publisher

Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School

Year dc:date.issued

2016

Authors dc:creator

• Bourret, Andrew K.
• Wines, Joshua D.
• Mendes, Jason M.

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Warren, T. Camber

Statement dc:rights

• This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/10945/51650

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/51650