Easing the Arctic tension an economic solution

Climate change in the Arctic is affecting the ice melt more rapidly than previously anticipated and the Arctic is now forecast to be ice-free by 2013. International borders, fossil fuel reservoirs and new sea routes for navigation are just a few of the issues at stake due to the receding ice cover. Contrary to those who perceive U.S.-Russian conflict arising out of the region and advocate a military response, this thesis argues that the Arctic, precisely because of its rich hydrocarbon resources, may prove to be amenable to a capitalist peace. Research suggests that nations linked by economic interdependence are less apt to engage in conflict with each other. Nations seeking foreign direct investment will be less likely to initiate conflict, as this would diminish the potential for attracting foreign capital. Russia's economy is dependent on oil and natural gas exports and these industries have created enormous wealth for the nation. Yet Russia's existing fossil fuel reservoirs are nearing exhaustion. Tapping into Arctic reserves is a strategic imperative for Russia, however, it lacks the technological capacity to do so. The energy industry in the West is farther along in developing such extractive technology. This thesis argues that Russia's need of foreign assistance in its hydrocarbon sector will make Russia more pacific, thereby offsetting realist fears of a military conflict in the Arctic.

Department dc:contributor.department

Security Studies

Grantor dc:publisher

Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School

Year dc:date.issued

2010

Author dc:creator

• Pate, Chad P.

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Clunan, Anne L.

Statement dc:rights

• This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/10945/5089

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/5089