Survival analysis of the modernized retirement system for the United States Marine Corps

This thesis analyzes the Modernized Retirement System introduced in the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2016. Specifically, this thesis determines if the Modernized Retirement System is likely to affect manpower levels. A survey was conducted within the active component of the U.S. Marine Corps to compare expected lengths of service between the current retirement system and the Modernized Retirement System. The analysis utilizes Kaplan-Meier survival analysis for expected lengths of service and probit regression models to evaluate various retirement choices under the Modernized Retirement System. The results of the analysis indicate the U.S. Marine Corps will experience a change in expected lengths of service for officers and enlisted Marines under the Modernized Retirement System. On average, enlisted Marines exhibit an approximate 2 percentage-point difference in length of service while officers exhibit an approximate 15 percentage-point difference across the two retirement systems. As the U.S. Marine Corps implements the Modernized Retirement System in 2018, retention and recruiting policies will need to adjust to retain and recruit the necessary individuals to serve in the U.S. Marine Corps.

Grantor dc:publisher

Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School

Year dc:date.issued

2016

Author dc:creator

• Moynihan, Gregory T.

Advisors dc:contributor.advisor

• Cunha, Jesse
• Menichini, Amilcar

Statement dc:rights

• This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/10945/48570

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/48570