Using a counterfactual process to identify the applicability of emerging technology

Law enforcement is often ill-prepared to identify and adopt emerging technologies into its agencies and communities. This ineffectiveness frequently leads to unintended consequences, as well as a technological gap between police departments and the criminal elements. This thesis examines how counterfactual analysis might assist law enforcement organizations to successfully implement emerging technologies into society. A counterfactual thought experiment was conducted using a historical event in which the applicability of an emerging technology (or antecedent) was analyzed. The antecedent for this scenario was Augmented Reality technology, in the possession of law enforcement personnel during the Boston Marathon Bombing that occurred on April 15, 2013. This thesis found that counterfactual analyses could allow agencies to assess the value of emerging technologies by considering their hypothetical use in past incidents and determining applicability in the future. Adopting this process might assist law enforcement in becoming more efficient in acquiring and implementing new technologies into its communities.

Department dc:contributor.department

National Security Affairs

Grantor dc:publisher

Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School

Year dc:date.issued

2014

Author dc:creator

• Johnson, Michael William

Advisors dc:contributor.advisor

• Wolman, Lauren
• Morag, Nadav

Statement dc:rights

• Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/10945/43934

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/43934