Rapid marine cyclogenesis forecast sensitivity to high resolution sea surface temperatures during ERICA IOP-5

The influence of high resolutions sea surface temperatures (SST) on Nested Grid Model (NGM) predictions of rapid marine cyclogenesis is examined. Satellite data provides a gridded SST analysis with a resolution of 50 km. Forecasts using the operational "blended" SST analysis with a neutral stratification assumed in the calculation of surface exchange coefficient over the ocean are compared to forecasts using the high resolution SST analysis with a stability dependent surface exchange coefficient. Further comparison is made to NGM forecasts with no surface fluxes. This study covers the Intensive Observation Period (IOP) 5 of the Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA). Results show little sensitivity of central pressure and storm position to the high resolution SSTs. However, differences in mesoscale features are present, primarily surface fluxes, precipitation, and frontal circulations.

Department dc:contributor.department

Meteorology

Grantor dc:publisher

Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School

Year dc:date.issued

1992

Author dc:creator

• DeCaria, Marcia A.

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Pauley, Patricia M.

Statement dc:rights

• This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.

Language dc:language.iso

en_US

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/10945/23758

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/23758