Validation of solar flare forecasting & evolution of magnetic helicity of two active regions

This thesis includes two components: (1) Validation of the NJIT flare-forecasting model that was established in recent years is carried out based on the statistical correlation between solar magnetic parameters and flare productivity of active regions (ARs). 378 ARs are examined, comparing observation with prediction. It is found that the accuracy rate to some extent decreases with the level of flares. (2) The temporal evolution of the relative magnetic helicity of two ARs, AR 11072 and 11158 is investigated. The former is flare-quiet while the latter is flare-productive over the 5-day observation period. It is found that for both regions, the shear-term is a predominant factor of magnetic helicity flux. The shear-term has the same sign as the emergence-term in both ARs. AR 11158 follows the "helicity hemispheric rule" (i.e., negative in the North hemisphere and positive in the South hemisphere), whereas AR 11072 does not.

Name thesis:degree_name

Master of Science in Applied Physics - (M.S.)

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Physics

Year

2013

Author dc:creator

• Li, Qin

Contributors dc:contributor

• Ju Jing
• Haimin Wang
• Jiang Tao Su

• Flare-forecasting model
• Relative magnetic helicity
• Other Physics

Repository record dc:identifier

https://digitalcommons.njit.edu/theses/170

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:digitalcommons.njit.edu:theses-1169