Mathematical modeling of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in Cattle and Buffaloes using vaccination and culling: A Namibia perspective

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is an acute, infectious viral disease for animals, and it is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases worldwide. Countries worldwide are putting efforts to curb the infection as it has devastating effects on agriculture and wildlife economies. Mathematical models have been used to analyse the transmission and control of FMD to enable better decision making for animal health policy makers. In this study, we developed and analysed a basic mathematical model of the dynamics of FMD with and without vaccination and culling as control measures replicating the FMD infection in the interface setting of Namibia communal areas and National parks. Furthermore, we fit the model with control measures to the yearly cumulative FMD cases in Namibia and discuss the results in order to identify the impact of these controls on the Namibian scenario. Vaccination and culling are the control methods mostly used in the Namibian setting for the control of FMD. Mathematical theories for systems of ordinary differential equations were used to establish the existence and uniqueness of model solutions, as well as the stability of equilibrium points and to ensure that the mathematical solutions were biologically reasonable. Important threshold parameters such as the reproduction numbers were established, which are critical indicators of disease spread. Results from the study showed that the models have two equilibrium points namely; the disease free equilibrium (DFE) and the endemic equilibrium points. The DFE was shown to be locally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1 and unstable when R0 > 1. The endemic equilibrium point was shown to exist when R0 > 1 and globally stable when R0 > 1. Numerical simulation results, using Namibia data relevant to the transmission dynamics of FMD, were presented to illustrate some of the main theoretical results and model projections. The results from this study suggest that increasing vaccination rate and efficacy has a positive impact on reducing the spread of FMD. Moreover, we have also observed that vaccination is not enough to protect both the cattle and buffaloes, therefore, more efforts from policy makers should be devoted to putting extra measures in place for buffaloes and cattle not to interact more often. Better results were observed when both vaccination and culling were implemented, hence it is advisable to Namibia to practice culling as one of the control measures.

Grantor dc:publisher

University of Namibia

Year dc:date.issued

2022

Author dc:creator

• Shikumwifa, Evalthine

• Foot and mouth disease
• Infectious viral disease for animals
• Namibia communal areas and national parks

Language dc:language.iso

en

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/11070/3186

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:repository.unam.edu.na:11070/3186