Nominal exchange rates, commodity prices and central bank policy

This thesis consists of three independent chapters on nominal exchange rates. The first chapter adds to the forward bias puzzle by noting that while the exchange rate of a small commodity-exporting economy can be closely tied to commodity prices, a portfolio of commodity futures exhibits little if any bias. This is demonstrated for Australia. Using a dependent economy model in which the exchange rate is a function of export prices, three potential explanations for the bias of exchange rate futures, but not commodity futures, are considered. Peso problems do not seem capable of explaining the puzzle. Monetary policy could explain some of the bias, though unlikely the full extent. Systematic expectation errors about the monetary process, while requiring strong assumptions, receive some empirical support from the behaviour of the exchange rate. The second chapter attempts to resolve the endogeneity of exchange rates and central bank intervention. Using a change in Reserve Bank of Australia intervention policy for identification, simulated GMM is used to estimate a model that includes the contemporaneous impact of intervention. Intervention is found to have an economically significant contemporaneous effect. A $US100m purchase of the domestic currency will appreciate the exchange rate by 1.35 to 1.81 per cent. Further, intervention is found to have the majority of its impact during the day in which it is conducted, with a smaller effect on subsequent days. Australian central bank intervention policy is confirmed to be characterised by leaning against the wind.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics.

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2002

Author dc:creator

• Kearns, Jonathan

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Roberto Rigobon and Jaume Ventura.

• Economics.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/8172

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/8172