Forest fire management in Portugal : developing system insights through models of social and physical dynamics

Managing forest fires is a serious national problem in Portugal. Burned area has increased steadily over the past several decades, with particularly devastating years in 2003 and 2005. Ignitions also spike dramatically in summer, which greatly strains firefighting resources and leads to fires that are insufficiently extinguished and later may rekindle. The response of policymakers and fire managers to these problems has largely been to increase fire suppression capacity and technology deployment. This research asks, what are the side effects or unintended consequences of policies dedicated to large and aggressive suppression forces? Much of the previous work in forest fire management focuses on narrowly-defined, static problems solved using optimization analysis. This research uses dynamic analysis, specifically System Dynamics, to explore how self-regulating feedback loops affect the outcomes of forest fire management decisions over time. Two models are developed. The strategic model explores the dynamic between suppression and prevention expenditure and its effect on long-term burned area. The operational model explores the dynamics through which rekindled fires occur. The results from both models show that interactions between relevant social and physical systems, in the form of public or institutional pressure, can force aggressive suppression decisions into practice. Furthermore, strict adherence to these policies can trap each system in a state of long-run worse behavior due to the overwhelming effects of negative feedback loops. Policy recommendations based on the results, and informed by an in-depth analysis of relevant stakeholders and impediments to implementation, are also presented.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2012

Author dc:creator

• Collins, Ross D. (Ross Daniel)

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Richard de Neufville.

• Engineering Systems Division.
• Technology and Policy Program.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/72651

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/72651