Hybrid & electric vehicle technology and its market feasibility

In this thesis, Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV), Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) and Electric Vehicle (EV) technology and their sales forecasts are discussed. First, the current limitations and the future potential of vehicle technology for HEVs, PHEVs, and EVs are investigated. Second, factors that have historically impacted vehicle sales in the United States are examined. The examination focuses on the effect of rising gasoline prices on the U.S. vehicle market for the periods which include three significant events involving gasoline prices: the Iran and Iraq war in 1979, Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and the recession of 2008. Finally, many parts of this thesis deal with sales forecasts of HEVs, PHEVs, and EVs up to 2030. While previous research used the unmodified Bass diffusion model or Generalized Bass model in order to examine the adoption rate of EVs, through using Norton-Bass Model and inserting Generalized Bass Model into Norton-Bass Model, this study seeks to overcome the limitation of Bass diffusion model, which has a fixed saturation level in order to generate more accurate projections.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division.

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2010

Author dc:creator

• Jeon, Sang Yeob

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Patrick Hale.

• Engineering Systems Division.
• System Design and Management Program.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/59252

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/59252