Nuclear non-proliferation regime effectiveness : an integrated methodology for analyzing highly enriched uranium production scenarios at gas centrifuge enrichment plants

The dramatic change in the international security environment after the collapse of the bipolar system has had a negative impact on the effectiveness of the existing nuclear non-proliferation regime. Furthermore, the success of the Pakistani Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Technology (GCET)- based nuclear weapons program has imposed a great challenge on the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) regime. In this context, this study tried to answer two questions: (a) what is the probability of proliferators successfully producing Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) at Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plants (GCEPs) and (b) how effective is the current NPT regime in dealing with this issue. In order to tackle these two questions, an integrated methodology is used that reflects all factors affecting the nuclear proliferation on the front-end of the nuclear fuel cycle. A quantitative assessment of the proliferation risks of producing HEU for multiple scenarios is presented using success tree models, uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, importance measures, and expert opinion. This assessment identifies the factors that can reduce the proliferators' success of producing HEU, which will be helpful in prioritizing the use of the IAEA's limited resources.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Nuclear Science and Engineering.

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2010

Author dc:creator

• Kwak, Taeshin (Taeshin S.)

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Michael W. Golay.

• Nuclear Science and Engineering.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/58084

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/58084