Exploring flexible strategies in engineering systems using screening models : applications to offshore petroleum projects

Engineering Systems, such as offshore petroleum exploration and production systems, generally require a significant amount of capital investment under various technical and market uncertainties. Choosing appropriate designs and field development strategies is a very challenging task for decision makers because they need to integrate information from multiple disciplines to make decisions while the various uncertainties are still evolving. Traditional engineering practice often focuses on finding "the optimal" solution under deterministic assumptions very early in the conceptual study phase, which leaves a large amount of opportunity unexploited, particularly the value of flexible strategies. This thesis proposes a new approach to tackle this issue - exploring flexible strategies using midfidelity screening models. The screening models interconnect and model physical systems, project development, and economics quantitatively at the mid-fidelity level, which allows decision-makers to explore different strategies with significantly less computational effort compared to high fidelity models. The screening models are at a level of detail that gives reliable rank orders of different strategies under realistic assumptions. Flexibilities are identified and classified at strategic, tactical, and operational levels over a system's lifecycle. Intelligent decision rules will then exercise flexible strategies as uncertainties unfold. This approach can be applied as a "front-end" strategic tool to conduct virtual experiments. This helps identify good strategies from a large number of possibilities and then discipline-based tools can be used for detailed engineering design and economics evaluation.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division.

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2009

Author dc:creator

• Lin, Jijun, Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Olivier de Weck.

• Engineering Systems Division.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/55173

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/55173