Sensitivity of model output statistics on the Lorenz system

This project studies the sensitivity of model output statistics (or MOS) in numerical weather prediction to lead times and parameters. In order to study MOS in an idealized setting, I use the simplified Lorenz system of differential equations as the physical model to explore the sensitivity of linear MOS in this non-linear system. MOS finds a statistical relationship between imperfect model variables and true variables using linear regression. The effect on the forecast error of lead time and parameter perturbation are investigated.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences.

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2009

Author dc:creator

• Coblenz, Joshua S

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Kerry Andrew Emanuel.

• Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/55167

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/55167