{"id":{"repo_id":"mit","oai_identifier":"oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/54467"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/mit/oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/54467","repository":{"repo_id":"mit","name":"MIT","base_url":"https://dspace.mit.edu/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"Assessments of long-term uranium supply availability","abstract":"The future viability of nuclear power will depend on the long-term availability of uranium. A two-form uranium supply model was used to estimate the date at which peak production will occur. The model assumes a constant annual rate of production growth to the peak, and a fixed reserves-to-production ratio thereafter. For mid-range assumptions of reserves and production growth rates, production is estimated to peak in 2076. Additionally, a net-present-value (NPV) analysis was used to model annual uranium exploration investment as a function of historical discovery costs; historical discovery, development, and production lifetimes; spot uranium prices; and credit availability. When back-tested over the past 30 years, the model successfully 'predicted' annual investment rates. Finally, multiples analysis was applied to estimate Australia's undiscovered and speculative resources, which were found to be 447,500 tU and 2,237,400 tU, respectively. The results of these analyses suggest that higher prices, increased exploration, and the use of non-conventional sources of uranium can provide plentiful supplies for at least the next century.","abstract_html":"The future viability of nuclear power will depend on the long-term availability of uranium. A two-form uranium supply model was used to estimate the date at which peak production will occur. The model assumes a constant annual rate of production growth to the peak, and a fixed reserves-to-production ratio thereafter. For mid-range assumptions of reserves and production growth rates, production is estimated to peak in 2076. Additionally, a net-present-value (NPV) analysis was used to model annual uranium exploration investment as a function of historical discovery costs; historical discovery, development, and production lifetimes; spot uranium prices; and credit availability. When back-tested over the past 30 years, the model successfully 'predicted' annual investment rates. Finally, multiples analysis was applied to estimate Australia's undiscovered and speculative resources, which were found to be 447,500 tU and 2,237,400 tU, respectively. The results of these analyses suggest that higher prices, increased exploration, and the use of non-conventional sources of uranium can provide plentiful supplies for at least the next century.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Zaterman, Daniel R"],"institution":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","degree_name":null,"degree_level":null,"degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Nuclear Science and Engineering.","school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":["Richard K. Lester."],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2009,"date_issued":"2009","date_published":"2009","updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:21:44Z","subjects":["Nuclear Science and Engineering."],"languages":["eng"],"rights":["M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission."],"rights_urls":["http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582"],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/54467","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor.advisor","label":"Advisor","values":["Richard K. Lester."]},{"key":"dc:contributor.department","label":"Department","values":["Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Nuclear Science and Engineering."]},{"key":"dc:contributor.other","label":"Dc Contributor Other","values":["Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 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A two-form uranium supply model was used to estimate the date at which peak production will occur. The model assumes a constant annual rate of production growth to the peak, and a fixed reserves-to-production ratio thereafter. For mid-range assumptions of reserves and production growth rates, production is estimated to peak in 2076. Additionally, a net-present-value (NPV) analysis was used to model annual uranium exploration investment as a function of historical discovery costs; historical discovery, development, and production lifetimes; spot uranium prices; and credit availability. When back-tested over the past 30 years, the model successfully 'predicted' annual investment rates. Finally, multiples analysis was applied to estimate Australia's undiscovered and speculative resources, which were found to be 447,500 tU and 2,237,400 tU, respectively. The results of these analyses suggest that higher prices, increased exploration, and the use of non-conventional sources of uranium can provide plentiful supplies for at least the next century."]},{"key":"dc:description.degree","label":"Dc Description Degree","values":["S.B."]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Assessments of long-term uranium supply availability"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.advisor":["Richard K. Lester."],"dc:contributor.department":["Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Nuclear Science and Engineering."],"dc:contributor.other":["Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 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Additionally, a net-present-value (NPV) analysis was used to model annual uranium exploration investment as a function of historical discovery costs; historical discovery, development, and production lifetimes; spot uranium prices; and credit availability. When back-tested over the past 30 years, the model successfully 'predicted' annual investment rates. Finally, multiples analysis was applied to estimate Australia's undiscovered and speculative resources, which were found to be 447,500 tU and 2,237,400 tU, respectively. The results of these analyses suggest that higher prices, increased exploration, and the use of non-conventional sources of uranium can provide plentiful supplies for at least the next century."],"dc:description.degree":["S.B."],"dc:identifier.uri":["http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/54467"],"dc:language.iso":["eng"],"dc:publisher":["Massachusetts Institute of Technology"],"dc:rights":["M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission."],"dc:rights.uri":["http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582"],"dc:subject":["Nuclear Science and Engineering."],"dc:title":["Assessments of long-term uranium supply availability"],"dc:type":["Thesis"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:21:44Z"}