Upper-ocean influences on hurricane intensification modeling

Hurricane intensification modeling has been a difficult problem for the atmospheric science community. Complex models have been built to simulate the process, but with only a certain amount of success. A model developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel is much simpler compared to previous studies. The Emanuel model approaches hurricane intensification as an ocean-controlled process where the upper-ocean heat content limits intensification. It is shown that this ocean-based model can produce very accurate results when the true structure of the ocean can be determined. The Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX) provides an opportunity for the model to be tested through the use of satellite altimetry. Measurements of the mixed layer depth and upper-ocean heat content are incorporated into the model for Hurricanes Bret, Gert, Opal, Mitch and Dolly. This technique is shown to be quite reliable for many storms, especially in the Gulf of Mexico. Limitations are examined where this method breaks down and improvements are suggested for its development into a forecasting tool.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences.

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2000

Author dc:creator

• DesAutels, Christopher Gerald, 1975-

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Kerry Emanuel.

• Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/53046

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/53046