A system dynamics perspective on the build-up to the 1997 South Korean financial crisis

Financial panics and crashes have become an item of familiarity to many nations around the world over more than several centuries. If history has taught us nothing else, it has taught us that we can learn from the past with the aim of improving the future. In 1997 a chain of events was set off in Asia that culminated in financial panic and crisis for many of the East Asian countries. The research in this paper focuses on the economic environment in South Korea in the years immediately preceding the 1997 financial crisis. The financial liberalization policy of interest rate de-regulation is modeled using system dynamics and the resultant economic behavior is explored. The feedback structure of the model is used to explain the asset bubble that formed during the height of the build-up. The national reliance on short-term commercial paper to finance long-term investments is explored and its relationship to the crisis is discussed. System dynamics is used to model the policy decisions that were made and explore different policy decisions and scenarios to provide insight into the resulting economic behavior.

Department dc:contributor.department

System Design and Management Program.

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2009

Author dc:creator

• Kopczynski, Jessica A., S.M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Brad Morrison.

• System Design and Management Program.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/47861

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/47861