The hydrology of malaria : field observations and mechanistic modeling of the malaria transmission response to environmental climatic variability

A coupled HYDrology, Entomology and MAlaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS) has been developed. The model simulates the hydrological and climatological determinants of malaria transmission mechanistically and at high spatialand temporal resolution, and is valid for semi-arid, desert fringe environments where the mosquito Anopheles gambiae s.l. is the dominant malaria vector. This includes much of the most malarious parts of Africa such as the Sahel. The model is validated with several years of field data collected from Banizoumbou village in southwestern Niger. Simulations of the 2005 and 2006 rain seasons in Banizoumbou using measured meteorological data successfully reproduce the observed interannual variability in malaria vector mosquito abundance. The distributed hydrology model operates at high spatial and temporal resolution, and incorporates remotely-sensed data for land cover and topography to simulate the formation and persistence of the small, temporary pools that constitute the breeding habitat of Anopheles gambiae s.l. mosquitoes. An agent-based mosquito population model is coupled to the distributed hydrology model, with aquatic stage and adult stage components. Aquatic stage mosquitoes are allowed to breed in any surface water, but the developing eggs, larvae and pupae die if the pool dries. The model structure maintains the spatial relationships of breeding pools, mosquitoes, and human habitation. For each individual adult mosquito, the model tracks the attributes relevant to population dynamics and malaria transmission, which are updated as mosquitoes interact with their environment, humans, and animals.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2009

Author dc:creator

• Bomblies, Arne

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Elfatih A.B. Eltahir.

• Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/47729

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/47729