Development of a Bayesian Network to monitor the probability of nuclear proliferation

Nuclear Proliferation is a complex problem that has plagued national security strategists since the advent of the first nuclear weapons. As the cost to produce nuclear weapons has continued to decline and the availability of nuclear material has become more widespread, the threat of proliferation has increased. The spread of technology and the globalization of the information age has made the threat not only more likely, but also more difficult to detect. Proliferation experts do not agree on the universal factors which cause nations to want to proliferate or the methods to prevent countries from successfully developing nuclear weapons. Historical evidence also indicates that the current nuclear powers pursued their nuclear programs for different reasons and under different conditions. This disparity presents a problem to decision makers who are tasked with preventing further nuclear proliferation. Bayesian Inference is a tool of quantitative analysis that is rapidly gaining interest in numerous fields of scientific study that have previously been limited to purely statistical methods. The Bayesian approach removes the statistical limitations of large-n data sets and strictly numerical types of data. It allows researchers to include sparse and rich data as well as qualitative data based on the opinions of subject matter experts. Bayesian inference allows the inclusion of both the quantitative data and subjective judgments in the determination of predictions about a theory of interest. This means that contrary to classic statistical methods, we can now make accurate predictions with reduced information and apply this probabilistic method to problems in social science. The problem of nuclear proliferation is one that lends itself to a Bayesian analysis. The data set is relatively small and the data is far from consistent from country to country.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2008

Author dc:creator

• Holcombe, Robert (Robert Joseph)

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Michael W. Golay.

• Nuclear Science and Engineering.
• Political Science.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/44793

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/44793