Determination of the historical changes in primary and secondary risk factors for cancer using U.S. public health records

Overall cancer mortality rates have risen from about 4% of all deaths in the early 20th century to about 25% of all deaths by the end of the century in the United States. To assess any potential hypotheses for this increase required knowledge of the mortality rate changes specific to each form of cancer, and the time points when these rates had changed. For this purpose, population and cancer mortality data of the U.S. were collected and organized to create age-specific mortality rates for each birth decade from the 1800s forward, delineated by the organ of incidence. Concurrently, cancer survival data were collected so as to correct for any effect of improved treatment on historical changes in cancer mortality rates. To analyze these data, a mathematical model for the three-stage process of carcinogenesis (initiation, promotion, and progression) was developed to estimate for each birth decade cohort the value of the fraction of the cohort at lifetime risk for that cancer, the value of the growth rate of the respective precancerous lesion, and the values for the mutation rates of normal and precancerous cells in the organ of incidence. This methodology permits the analysis of the potential historical effect of new chemical exposures during the last century on cancer mortality rates. These chemical exposures represent potential risk factors that determine the fraction of the population at risk of developing cancer (lifetime, primary risk factor), or that hasten death by cancer by altering either mutation or cell kinetic rates (accelerating, secondary risk factor.)

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Division of Bioengineering and Environmental Health

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2001

Author dc:creator

• Herrero Jimenez, Pablo, 1972-

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• William G. Thilly.

• Division of Bioengineering and Environmental Health.

Statement dc:rights

• MIT theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed, downloaded, or printed from this source but further reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/41804

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/41804