An integrated methodology for quantitative assessment of proliferation resistance of advanced nuclear systems using probabilistic methods

Proliferation is the results of a competition between the proliferating country (proliferation) and the party to resist the proliferation efforts (safeguarder). An integrated evaluation methodology to evaluate proliferation resistance of nuclear energy systems is outlined and demonstrated focusing upon the proliferation competition. The methodology consists of four steps: actor characterization, proliferation competition model development, model input evaluation, and pathway assessment. A success tree method is used to structure the proliferation. The method permits integration of all aspects of proliferation resistance of a nuclear energy system, both intrinsic and extrinsic, in evaluating an integrated proliferation probability measure. Most of the input data obtained in a subjective form are viewed as the current state of knowledge of an evaluator for a system, reflecting an evaluator's beliefs. A modular pebble bed reactor (MPBR) design was chosen as the reference system for demonstration of the methodology. The demonstration study follows the integrated evaluation methodology, and gives a particular assessment of the proliferation resistance associated with a proliferating host State focusing upon the diversion from the spent fuel storage of a MPBR plant.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Nuclear Engineering

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2005

Author dc:creator

• Ham, Hyeongpil

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Michael W. Golay.

• Nuclear Engineering.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/34433

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/34433