Epidemic modeling techniques for smallpox

Infectious disease models predict the impact of outbreaks. Discrepancies between model predictions stem from both the disease parameters used and the underlying mathematics of the models. Smallpox has been modeled extensively in recent years to determine successful response guidelines for a future outbreak. Five models, which range in fidelity, were created for this thesis in an attempt to reveal the differences inherent in the mathematical techniques used in the models. The disease parameters were standardized across all models. Predictions for various outbreak scenarios are given, and the strengths and weaknesses of each modeling technique are discussed. The mixing strategy used greatly affects the predictions of the models. The results gathered indicate that mass vaccination should be considered as a primary response technique in the event of a future smallpox outbreak.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science.

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2004

Author dc:creator

• McLean, Cory Y. (Cory Yuen Fu)

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Adam Szpiro and Lucila Ohno-Machado.

• Electrical Engineering and Computer Science.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/33148

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/33148