Regional earthquake loss estimation : role of transportation network, sensitivity and uncertainty, and risk mitigation

Large earthquakes near densely populated areas such as the 1994 Northridge and 1995 Kobe events have caused extensive damage to the physical infrastructure and losses to the regional and national economies. Economic losses are due in part to direct damage and in part to business interruption caused by non- functioning infrastructure and interdependencies among industrial sectors. We developed a regional earthquake loss methodology that emphasizes economic interdependencies at regional and national scales and the mediating role of the transportation network. In an application to the Central U.S. under threat from earthquakes from the New Madrid Seismic Zone, we (1) evaluate regional and national losses from scenario earthquakes, (2) quantify uncertainty on the losses through loss risk curves including contributions from seismicity, attenuation, fragilities, etc. and (3) assess the effectiveness of alternative mitigation strategies. The loss assessment methodology includes spatial interactions (through the transportation network) and business interaction (through an input-output model) and extends geographically to the entire conterminous U.S. The losses reflect damage to buildings and transportation components, reduced functionality, changes in the level of economic activity in different economic sectors and geographical regions, and the speed of the reconstruction/recovery process. Evaluation of losses for a number of scenario earthquakes indicates that losses from business interruption may be as significant as infrastructure repair costs. The overall loss is also contributed by the increase in transportation costs due to network damage.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2005

Author dc:creator

• Karaca, Erdem, 1976-

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Daniele Veneziano.

• Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/30350

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/30350