Engineering and policy analysis of strategic and tactical options for future aerospace traffic management

Current space launch/landing events are conducted only within Special Use Airspace (SUA), separate from air traffic. This is a strategic traffic management policy because SUA size and duration are set well in advance. It forces space operations to disrupt aviation, which could become costly with growth in air or space transportation. This was investigated through integrated engineering/policy analysis of strategic and tactical options. Total annual disruption cost was calculated using the number of conflicts per SUA event, the annual SUA events, the average disruption per conflict, and the cost per unit disruption. The conflict count was identified as most important, and an analytical airspace conflict model was developed to predict the number of conflicts associated with restricting an arbitrary region of airspace for a given duration. This approach was used to investigate the sensitivity of disruption cost to SUA radius, SUA active duration, air traffic density, relative velocity, annual SUA events, and conflict resolution distance. The current annual cost is under $1 million, but the expected ranges of all factors comprise a plausible range of $100 to $8 million. This cost was most sensitive to SUA radius: on average, doubling the radius multiplies the cost by 49, while doubling the traffic density simply doubles the cost, and doubling the SUA active duration multiplies the cost by only 1.8.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Technology, Management, and Policy Program.

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2002

Author dc:creator

• Falker, John M

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• James K. Kuchar.

• Technology, Management, and Policy Program.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29250

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/29250