The application of prediction markets to business

According to financial theory, open markets efficiently and effectively aggregate all available information about future events into their prices. Recent empirical evidence has shown that speculative markets, from gambling to web-games, are better at predicting the future than more commonly used statistical or survey-based forecasting methods. As a result, a number of companies have conducted experiments to evaluate the use of prediction markets as an alternative forecasting methodology. This paper offers a comprehensive framework for determining when and how prediction markets should be employed in a business context.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division.

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2004

Author dc:creator

• Schrieber, Jared M. (Jared Martin), 1976-

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Abbott Weiss.

• Engineering Systems Division.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

en_US

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/28514

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/28514