Architecting Optimal (Space) Strategies: A Quantitative Framework

The harsh light of the explosion of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine illuminated the strategic importance of space technology, making it clearly visible to nations around the globe. Space technology has become omnipresent over the past decades thanks to new technologies and lowered barriers of access to space as well as the expansion of services relying on satellite data. While the barriers of access may be lower, the acquisition of effective space capabilities remains a costly and challenging task for emerging or aspiring space actors. Yet literature on and tools for measuring the outcomes of national space investments, space capabilities or designing impactful space strategies remains limited. This thesis contributes a series of methods to advance the field of quantitative space strategy development, with implications for industrial policy in other domains. First, it presents the results of an in-depth econometric panel data analysis based on one of the most comprehensive space-capability datasets to date. Twenty-six outcome variables, measuring various dimensions of space capability, are evaluated for nine space actors over ten years, drawing on a wide range of sources, including fieldwork conducted in the Asia–Pacific region and the UK. Statistically significant relationships are identified, including those between the operational age of a space agency and per-capita space spending, and between spending levels and astronaut flight frequency. Second, the thesis introduces two novel metrics for comparing space capabilities. One metric, derived via unsupervised learning, combines the variation of all 26 indicators into a single quantitative “spacepower” value for each actor. The other, a non-dimensional index named CPPI, quantifies the capability provided by individual space assets. Example scores range from 47 for a smallsat to 75 for a large geostationary satellite. Finally, the thesis proposes two network-science-based methods to help analysts and decision-makers understand the structural origins of strategic success. The first method examines how the network centrality of a nation’s space manufacturing sector correlates with the output impact of spending. The second method introduces a state-of-the-art agentic-flow tool, StratAgeM, which builds a network topology of a strategy based on a specialised ontology. A strategy’s “connectedness”—quantified via the spectral gap of its architecture—hints at a relationship with performance in capability development, with values of approximately 0.23 for Canada and 0.3 for Korea, based on their 2012–2013 strategies. The domain-focused contributions include one of the most detailed quantitative analyses of space capabilities to date, alongside new metrics to compare national space trajectories. Several of the methodological contributions—–particularly those grounded in agentic flow modelling—extend beyond the space sector.

Name thesis:degree_name

Doctoral

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2025

Author dc:creator

• Erkel, Daniel

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• de Weck, Olivier L.

Statement dc:rights

• In Copyright - Educational Use Permitted
• Copyright retained by author(s)

Licence dc:rights.uri

• https://rightsstatements.org/page/InC-EDU/1.0/

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/162907

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/162907