Precipitation variability and change over Morocco and the Mediterranean

Water is a critical factor limiting economic and social development in Morocco and the Mediterranean Basin. In addition to strong seasonality and high inter-annual variability, annual precipitation remains low (<500mm) across much of the region. Furthermore, the situation is not expected to improve under climate change as models project a sustained decline in precipitation in the Mediterranean, most pronounced during the winter season. Despite the significance of such projections, a comprehensive theory for Mediterranean winter climate change is still lacking. Here, we adopt a multi-faceted approach to investigate precipitation variability and change over Morocco and the Mediterranean, with a focus on resulting water availability. First, we link inter-annual variability of seasonal precipitation in Morocco to global sea-surface temperatures, and develop empirical forecast models that can predict up to 35% of this variability with a one-month lead time.

Name thesis:degree_name

Doctoral

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2020

Author dc:creator

• Tuel, Alexandre.

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Elfatih. A. B. Eltahir.

• Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Statement dc:rights

• MIT theses may be protected by copyright. Please reuse MIT thesis content according to the MIT Libraries Permissions Policy, which is available through the URL provided.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129036

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/129036