Strategic capacity planning using data science, optimization, and machine learning

Raytheon's Circuit Card Assembly (CCA) factory in Andover, MA is Raytheon's largest factory and the largest Department of Defense (DOD) CCA manufacturer in the world. With over 500 operations, it manufactures over 7000 unique parts with a high degree of complexity and varying levels of demand. Recently, the factory has seen an increase in demand, making the ability to continuously analyze factory capacity and strategically plan for future operations much needed. This study seeks to develop a sustainable strategic capacity optimization model and capacity visualization tool that integrates demand data with historical manufacturing data. Through automated data mining algorithms of factory data sources, capacity utilization and overall equipment effectiveness (OEE) for factory operations are evaluated. Machine learning methods are then assessed to gain an accurate estimate of cycle time (CT) throughout the factory. Finally, a mixed-integer nonlinear program (MINLP) integrates the capacity utilization framework and machine learning predictions to compute the optimal strategic capacity planning decisions. Capacity utilization and OEE models are shown to be able to be generated through automated data mining algorithms. Machine learning models are shown to have a mean average error (MAE) of 1.55 on predictions for new data, which is 76.3% lower than the current CT prediction error. Finally, the MINLP is solved to optimality within a tolerance of 1.00e-04 and generates resource and production decisions that can be acted upon.

Name thesis:degree_name

Master

Department dc:contributor.department

Sloan School of Management

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2020

Author dc:creator

• Nowak, Hans,II(Hans Antoon)

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Roy Welsch and Daniel Frey.

• Sloan School of Management.
• Mechanical Engineering.
• Leaders for Global Operations Program.

Statement dc:rights

• MIT theses may be protected by copyright. Please reuse MIT thesis content according to the MIT Libraries Permissions Policy, which is available through the URL provided.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/126914

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/126914