Quantification of extreme event statistics in ship design

Increased operational demands on Navy vessels extend time at sea and service life, making the accurate prediction of catastrophic failures increasingly challenging. The high value of these capital assets puts great pressure on designers and decision-makers as they work towards preventing such failures while balancing both engineering and material cost. The current method for the quantification of extreme events is direct Monte Carlo simulation supplemented by complex statistical models. When such models are not sufficiently bound by physics-based simulation, the noise of statistical uncertainty quickly overpowers the response predictions for rare events. This thesis builds on previous work at the MIT Stochastic Analysis and Non-linear Dynamics (SAND) lab for the quantification of extreme events using wave groups. By separating the event probability from the physics models, we are able to capture rare events in ship motion and loading conditions for a modest computational cost. Improvements to the wave groups methodology ensured the slope and amplitude of the incident waves reflected the waves encountered in a given wave spectrum. The remaining discussion explores the value of a near-real-time risk analysis tools in reference to ship design and ship operations, with unique application to Navy and commercial vessels.

Name thesis:degree_name

Master

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Mechanical Engineering

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2019

Author dc:creator

• Rathore, Uditbhan S.

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Themistoklis P. Sapsis and Bryan R. Moser.

• Mechanical Engineering.
• System Design and Management Program.
• Engineering and Management Program.

Statement dc:rights

• MIT theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed, downloaded, or printed from this source but further reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/122613

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/122613