Characterizing the evolution of the alternative fuel vehicle and infrastructure Nexus

For decades, petroleum-based fuels have dominated as the primary energy source for the light duty vehicle (LDV) fleet in the United States and around most of the world. However, recent developments in alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) technology have led to viable alternatives to the traditional internal combustion engine. In particular, vehicles with zero tailpipe emissions including plug-in electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) powered by hydrogen fuel have the potential to greatly reduce transportation emissions. However, adoption of these vehicles has grown slowly for a number of reasons. One of the largest barriers to adoption is a chicken-or-egg problem; the interdependence between the adoption of AFVs and the expansion of a new network of refueling infrastructure to support them. This thesis examines the current status of refueling networks and AFV adoption around the world with a specific focus on the U.S. I specify the characteristics of the various impediments to AFV expansion including high purchase price, range anxiety, and consumer familiarity. I then present a series of sensitivity analyses examining the projected vehicle-infrastructure co-evolution using a system dynamics model parameterized for the United States private LDV fleet. For battery electric vehicles, the results indicate that steady growth in market share is possible, given continued investment and political support. Adoption of FCEVs, on the other hand, is likely to grow much more slowly and these vehicles may not enter the U.S. market at all unless supported by significant private investment or political intervention. However, significantly higher levels of adoption in concentrated areas may be possible in the simulated timeframe out to the year 2050.

Name thesis:degree_name

Master

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2019

Author dc:creator

• Weigl, Dustin.

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• John Heywood.

• Civil and Environmental Engineering.
• Institute for Data, Systems, and Society.
• Engineering Systems Division.
• Technology and Policy Program.

Statement dc:rights

• MIT theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed, downloaded, or printed from this source but further reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/122394

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/122394