Addressing deep uncertainty in space system development through model-based adaptive design

When developing a space system, many properties of the design space are initially unknown and are discovered during the development process. Therefore, the problem exhibits deep uncertainty. Deep uncertainty refers to the condition where the full range of outcomes of a decision is not knowable. A key strategy to mitigate deep uncertainty is to update decisions when new information is learned. NASA's current uncertainty management processes do not emphasize revisiting decisions and therefore are vulnerable to deep uncertainty. Examples from the development of the James Webb Space Telescope are provided to illustrate these vulnerabilities. In this research, the spacecraft development problem is modeled as a dynamic, chance-constrained, stochastic optimization problem. The Model-based Adaptive Design under Uncertainty (MADU) framework is introduced, in which conflict-directed search is combined with reuse of conflicts to solve the problem efficiently.

Name thesis:degree_name

Doctoral

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2019

Author dc:creator

• Chodas, Mark A.

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Olivier L. de Weck, Rebecca A. Masterson, Brian C. Williams and Michel D. Ingham.

• Aeronautics and Astronautics.

Statement dc:rights

• MIT theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed, downloaded, or printed from this source but further reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/122369

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/122369