Potential housing bubble with Chinese characteristics : analysis and policy design through an operational model

This thesis analyzes the potential housing bubble in the Chinese urban housing market. Using an operational model built on system dynamics (SD), it explores the unique housing market structures, information flows, key agents and their decision-making processes, and the system constraints that may contribute to the bubble forming phenomenon. Its SD models differ from intensive data-driven economic models. They are structural, operational, and focus on causal relationships. They can more easily accommodate non-market features and unique institutional components, where long-range historical data are not readily available. As the Chinese government heavily controls its housing markets, housing prices greatly depend on political decisions. The models incorporate the incentives and decisions of key agents in the market and have predictive power through simulation and scenario analysis.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute for Data, Systems, and Society

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2018

Author dc:creator

• Zhang, Xin

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Richard de Neufville.

• Institute for Data, Systems, and Society.
• Engineering Systems Division.

Statement dc:rights

• MIT theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed, downloaded, or printed from this source but further reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/115773

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/115773