Estimating change propagation risk using TRLs and system architecture

Risk estimation is a key activity for product development and technology integration programs. There are a number of decision support tools that help project managers identify and mitigate risks in a project, however few explicitly consider the effects of architecture on risk. We propose a novel risk estimation framework that includes considerations of the system architecture. By starting with traditional project management literature, we define risk as a combination of likelihood and impact. We use Technology Readiness Levels as our measure for likelihood, and given that change propagates through interfaces, we used metrics that relate to connectivity to estimate impact. To analyze the connectivity, we model systems using networks of nodes and edges and calculate centrality metrics. This framework is applied to an industry example and we visualize the data in different formats to aid in analysis. The insights gained from this analysis are discussed, and we conclude that the risk estimation framework provides estimates that are in line with the experience of engineers at the company.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering and Management Program

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2017

Author dc:creator

• Garg, Tushar

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Steven D. Eppinger.

• Engineering and Management Program.
• System Design and Management Program.

Statement dc:rights

• MIT theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed, downloaded, or printed from this source but further reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/110134

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/110134