Transfer learning for predictive models in MOOCs

Predictive models are crucial in enabling the personalization of student experiences in Massive Open Online Courses. For successful real-time interventions, these models must be transferable - that is, they must perform well on a new course from a different discipline, a different context, or even a different MOOC platform. In this thesis, we first investigate whether predictive models "transfer" well to new courses. We then create a framework to evaluate the "transferability" of predictive models. We present methods for overcoming the biases introduced by specific courses into the models by leveraging a multi-course ensemble of models. Using 5 courses from edX, we show a predictive model that, when tested on a new course, achieved up to a 6% increase in AUCROC across 90 different prediction problems. We then tested this model on 10 courses from Coursera (a different platform) and demonstrate that this model achieves an AUCROC of 0.8 across these courses for the problem of predicting dropout one week in advance. Thus, the model "transfers" very well.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2016

Author dc:creator

• Boyer, Sebastien (Sebastien Arcario)

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Kalyan Veeramachaneni.

• Institute for Data, Systems, and Society.
• Engineering Systems Division.
• Technology and Policy Program.
• Electrical Engineering and Computer Science.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/104832

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/104832