An assessment of uncertainty due to adversary mobility

Uncertainty related to an adversary's tactics, techniques, and procedures is often difficult to characterize, particularly during the period immediately before a conflict, when planning for a face-to-face confrontation with a combatant. Adversarial freedom of maneuver and the fixed nature of asset defense leaves limited room for error or half-assessments, yet past analysis of regional defendability presumes a static, symmetric adversary, rather than a nimble, cunning one. This thesis examines historical events to identify the source of uncertainty with respect to defensive operations, and proposes that an alternative measure of performance be evaluated to fully characterize the effectiveness and limitations of defensive elements in the face of a determined peer.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division.

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2015

Author dc:creator

• Fulchino, Matthew T

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• James M. Utterback.

• Engineering Systems Division.
• System Design and Management Program.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/100373

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/100373