Essays on Systemic Banking Crises and Bank Regulation

In a panel comprising 61 countries covering the years 1980-2010 we show that macroeconomic variables such as GDP and deposit insurance remain statistically significant crisis determinants in the long run but that variables such as real-interest rates and inflation are not reported as systemic banking crisis determinants when estimated over a full business cycle. When studies such as these are conducted we find that the choice of panel time-span is highly relevant. Using a shorter panel (1998-2011) involving 75 countries, we show that sectoral variables such as Bank Z-Score, private-credit-to-GDP ratio, bank credit-to-deposit ratio and non-performing loan levels yield improved in-sample crisis predictions. Whereas sectoral-centric models may over-estimate the likelihood of systemic banking crises this does not constitute a model weakness if not overlooking embryonic crises is the key objective. Future research is facilitated via the establishment of a control cluster of determinants with both sectoral as well as macroeconomic constituents.

Name dc:type.qualificationname

phd

Level dc:type.qualificationlevel

doctoral

Grantor dc:publisher.institution

National University of Ireland Maynooth

Year dc:date.issued

2016

Author dc:creator

• Wosser, Michael

Language dc:language

en