RELATING RISKS TO PAY FACTORS FOR HIGHWAY PAVEMENTS THROUGH MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

The majority of State Highway Agencies (SHAs) now employ statistical-based specifications for the acceptance of highway materials and pavement construction. The parameters of these statistical acceptance plans are specified based on engineering judgment and may result in a high level of risk to both agency and contractor. In order to appropriately apply such specifications to the pavement construction industry, the associated production quality (i.e., materials and construction variability) needs to be well understood by all parties involved and its potential impacts require to be assessed. To address this objective of this study was to: (i) quantify the risks to the agencies and contractors (i.e., Type I and Type II errors); (ii) examine how the key components in a statistical acceptance plan impact its performance; and, (iii) identify a methodology to balance the risks and pay factors. Risk and pay factor analysis were conducted for both single and multiple quality characteristics through Monte Carlo simulation, and the development of Operating Characteristic, OC, curves. Furthermore, case studies were presented to demonstrate the value of the analyses proposed in this study. The methodology and findings identified in the study can be applied elsewhere to evaluate the acceptance plans and the associated risks pertinent to pavement construction and the production of highway materials.

Department dc:contributor.department

Civil Engineering

Year dc:date.issued

2019

Author dc:creator

• Zhao, Yunpeng

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Goulias, Dimitrios G

Language dc:language.iso

en

Identifier

https://doi.org/10.13016/yfiz-owjy

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:drum.lib.umd.edu:1903/25534