Models for Estimating Psychiatric Bed Needs

<p>Inland Counties Comprehensive Health Planning Council wished to estimate the psychiatric bed needs by type (such as state hospitals, board and care homes, etc.) in San Bernardino County from the distributions of patient arrivals and of lengths of stay. A statistical description of the system during 1973 was considered the first step toward estimating future bed needs. A computer simulation model using IBM's programming language General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS) was developed and was found to be unsatisfactory.</p> <p>Theorems were then developed for a statistical model, seeking to predict future bed needs. The most convenient of these theorems states that under appropriate circumstances the average occupancy of a facility will be approximately equal to the product of (1) the average number of admissions per day and (2) the average length of stay in days. Generalizations of this theorem and the corresponding theorem for the variance of the number of occupants generated a model which predicted fairly accurately the occupancy of Ward B of San Bernardino County Hospital during the first six months of 1973. This statistical model is easily adaptable for changing conditions such as varying lengths of stay, decrease or increase in admissions, or changes in proportions of diagnoses.</p>

Name thesis:degree_name

Master of Science (MS)

Level thesis:degree_level

Thesis

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Mathematical Sciences

Year

1974

Author dc:creator

• Brenneman, Patricia A.

Contributors dc:contributor

• Grenith J. Zimmerman
• Ivan R. Neilsen
• Jan W. Kuzma
• Paul Y. Yahiku
• Jere E. Chrispens

• Biostatistics
• Mathematics
• Psychiatric and Mental Health
• Vital and Health Statistics
• Hospital Bed Capacity; Mental Health Services -- California

Statement dc:rights

• This title appears here courtesy of the author, who has granted Loma Linda University a limited, non-exclusive right to make this publication available to the public. The author retains all other copyrights.

Language dc:language

English

Repository record dc:identifier

https://scholarsrepository.llu.edu/etd/1516

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:scholarsrepository.llu.edu:etd-2293