The impacts of climate change on the summerfruit industry with respect to insect pest incursions
type: CreativeWork
description: It is now well established that climate change is causing a rise in surface air temperatures due to anthropgenic greenhouse gas emissions. Evidence suggests that warmer surface air temperatures are likely to have an impact on species distributions and climatic suitability, potentially resulting in an increase of tropical or sub-tropical insect pest establishments in areas with temperate climates such as New Zealand. The increased risk of these exotic insect pests establishments is likely to affect both native ecosystems and agricultural industries. The New Zealand summerfruit industry is the fourth largest horticulural industry in New Zealand with a valuable export market worth NZ$30 million per annum. New Zealand currently maintains a valuable fruit fly free status that is maintained by strict biosecurity procedures such as the treatment and inspection of imported fruit and a nationwide trapping grid. However climate change could improve the climatic suitability for particular fruit fly species in New Zealand and increase the risk of permanent establishment.. In the absence of more detailed biological data for target species, any assessment of establishment potential of species under changing conditions often means the use of a species distribution model (SDM) to project climatic suitability in the target area. This research aimed to predict and compare the climatic suitability of major summerfruit producing regions in New Zealand under current climatic conditions and future climate change conditions of Bactrocera dorsalis, B. tryoni, B. zonata, Ceratitis capitata and C. rosa. A common ecoclimatic assessment model known as CLIMEX and a correlative modelling system comprising multiple SDM models were used to estimate climatic suitability for each species. Climatic suitability predictions for New Zealand were generated for 2040 and 2090 emission scenarios that represented best case, intermediate and worse case scenarios per time frame. The results using CLIMEX indica…
abstract: It is now well established that climate change is causing a rise in surface air temperatures due to anthropgenic greenhouse gas emissions. Evidence suggests that warmer surface air temperatures are likely to have an impact on species distributions and climatic suitability, potentially resulting in an increase of tropical or sub-tropical insect pest establishments in areas with temperate climates such as New Zealand. The increased risk of these exotic insect pests establishments is likely to affect both native ecosystems and agricultural industries. The New Zealand summerfruit industry is the fourth largest horticulural industry in New Zealand with a valuable export market worth NZ$30 million per annum. New Zealand currently maintains a valuable fruit fly free status that is maintained by strict biosecurity procedures such as the treatment and inspection of imported fruit and a nationwide trapping grid. However climate change could improve the climatic suitability for particular fruit fly species in New Zealand and increase the risk of permanent establishment.. In the absence of more detailed biological data for target species, any assessment of establishment potential of species under changing conditions often means the use of a species distribution model (SDM) to project climatic suitability in the target area. This research aimed to predict and compare the climatic suitability of major summerfruit producing regions in New Zealand under current climatic conditions and future climate change conditions of Bactrocera dorsalis, B. tryoni, B. zonata, Ceratitis capitata and C. rosa. A common ecoclimatic assessment model known as CLIMEX and a correlative modelling system comprising multiple SDM models were used to estimate climatic suitability for each species. Climatic suitability predictions for New Zealand were generated for 2040 and 2090 emission scenarios that represented best case, intermediate and worse case scenarios per time frame. The results using CLIMEX indica…
author: Lindsay, Karel
language: en
keywords: climate change, species distribution models, fruit flies, CLIMEX, summerfruit, biosecurity, distribution range shift
date published: 2010
date modified: 2026-07-24T02:50:54Z
provider: Lincoln University
publisher: Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations
type: WebPage
source organization: Lincoln University

PropertyValue
property ID: Handle
value: https://hdl.handle.net/10182/3955