Examining permafrost detection and validation techniques in thermally complex mountainous terrain: a case study in the Ogilvie Mountains, Yukon, Canada

Climatic warming necessitates a more comprehensive understanding of permafrost distribution. However, permafrost cannot be directly observed due to its subsurface nature, leading to a reliance on predictive models. Models commonly lack comprehensive validation through independent field observation and are thus prone to uncertainty. The goal of this research is to explore the limitations of permafrost model validation in a heterogeneous periglacial environment. Permafrost evaluation through two independent models in the Ogilvie Mountains were sampled using 74 cryotic assessment sites. The sampling goal was to identify permafrost in-situ, examining the concept of "testability". Sampling was performed using the ground thermal profiling method. Interference from impenetrable substrates caused 51.4 % of tests to fail. This data informed a probability of testability model. Overall, the landscape exhibited polarized testability, with elevation as a predictor. This highlights a critical knowledge gap in permafrost research today regarding uncertainty and validation.

Authors

• Nicholson, Ria E.
• University of Lethbridge. Faculty of Arts and Science

• permafrost distribution
• predictive models
• permafrost model limitations
• permafrost model validation
• mountainous terrain
• modelling issues
• complex permafrost sites
• thermal heterogeniety
• in-situ permafrost testability

Identifier

hdl:10133/7047

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:opus.uleth.ca:10133/7047