{"id":{"repo_id":"helsinki","oai_identifier":"oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/634332"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/helsinki/oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/634332","repository":{"repo_id":"helsinki","name":"University of Helsinki","base_url":"https://helda.helsinki.fi/server/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"Urban-Scale Decomposition of Carbon Peaking Targets in the Yangtze River Delta from a Consumption-Based Responsibility Perspective","abstract":"Under the background of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, the scientifically grounded decomposition of the carbon peaking target to the city level has emerged as a vital issue in China’s climate governance. As one of the regions with the highest economic development and strongest integration, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is a major source of carbon emissions, and its attainment of the carbon peaking target is essential for national goals. However, with intensifying inter-city trade and deepening industrial specialization, emissions responsibility no longer strictly aligns with production activities within administrative boundaries. Traditional production-based accounting fails to comprehensively reflect the true carbon responsibility of cities. Therefore, it is necessary to re-examine the emissions responsibility and equitable distribution among 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from a consumption-based accounting perspective. Focusing on the 41 cities in the YRD, this study constructs an integrated framework of “carbon accounting - carbon prediction - carbon quota allocation.” First, using a city-level MRIO model and carbon data, we measure production-based and consumption-based carbon emissions and identify embodied carbon transfers driven by trade. Second, considering carbon intensity trends and economic growth scenarios, we forecast the carbon peaking pathway, identifying the peaking year and peak level. Finally, under an aggregate constraint, we apply the Equal Cumulative Carbon Per Capita Emissions (ECCPCE) principle to perform the inter-city target decomposition and compare result variants to identify the impact of trade-embodied carbon transfers on the allocation scheme. The results indicate that: (1) Regarding accounting characteristics, both production-based and consumption-based carbon emissions in the YRD follow a phase of “rapid escalation followed by stabilization.” Overall, consumption-based emissions consistently exceed production-based emissions, characterizing the region as a typical “net carbon importer.” The carbon footprint exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with high-value agglomerations centered in developed cities like Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Nanjing, while southern/western Anhui and southwestern Zhejiang remain at relatively low levels. (2) Regarding embodied carbon transfers, internal carbon flows show strong stability and hierarchy. Anhui serves as the primary net embodied carbon exporter, while Jiangsu and Zhejiang are core recipients, and Shanghai acts as a powerful consumption hub. Dense connections exist between cities in southern Jiangsu and along the Yangtze, while strong internal flows are observed among Zhejiang cities. (3) Comparison shows that historical consumption-based responsibility is significantly higher than production-based responsibility, with a net carbon inflow of 736 Mt. Historical cumulative emissions responsibility shows a “dual differentiation”: consumption-driven cities (Shanghai, etc.) exhibit higher consumption responsibility, while production-bearing cities (Huainan, etc.) are dominated by production responsibility. Correlation analysis shows that the link between per capita emissions and per capita GDP is significantly stronger under the consumption-based accounting perspective, indicating that it better captures the indirect pull of developed cities’ final demand and thus more accurately identifies real differences in responsibility attribution. Finally, quota allocation results reveal how shifting the responsibility perspective affects emissions space. The carbon peaking pathway follows a “rise, stabilize, then slow decline” pattern, with peak emissions expected in 2030 at approximately 1,951.38 Mt. The quota adjustments exhibit significant spatial differentiation. Compared to production-based schemes, the consumption-based equity scheme compresses the future emissions space for core consumption cities (Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, etc.) while relatively relaxing quota constraints for cities in northern Anhui, northern Jiangsu, and parts of western Anhui. This study enriches the theoretical framework of city-level carbon accounting and quota allocation, highlighting the importance of the consumption-based perspective. The conclusions provide a policy basis for an equitable and coordinated low-carbon transition in the YRD, offering practical value for balancing internal responsibility and development needs through differentiated target decomposition.","abstract_html":"Under the background of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, the scientifically grounded decomposition of the carbon peaking target to the city level has emerged as a vital issue in China’s climate governance. As one of the regions with the highest economic development and strongest integration, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is a major source of carbon emissions, and its attainment of the carbon peaking target is essential for national goals. However, with intensifying inter-city trade and deepening industrial specialization, emissions responsibility no longer strictly aligns with production activities within administrative boundaries. Traditional production-based accounting fails to comprehensively reflect the true carbon responsibility of cities. Therefore, it is necessary to re-examine the emissions responsibility and equitable distribution among 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from a consumption-based accounting perspective. Focusing on the 41 cities in the YRD, this study constructs an integrated framework of “carbon accounting - carbon prediction - carbon quota allocation.” First, using a city-level MRIO model and carbon data, we measure production-based and consumption-based carbon emissions and identify embodied carbon transfers driven by trade. Second, considering carbon intensity trends and economic growth scenarios, we forecast the carbon peaking pathway, identifying the peaking year and peak level. Finally, under an aggregate constraint, we apply the Equal Cumulative Carbon Per Capita Emissions (ECCPCE) principle to perform the inter-city target decomposition and compare result variants to identify the impact of trade-embodied carbon transfers on the allocation scheme. The results indicate that: (1) Regarding accounting characteristics, both production-based and consumption-based carbon emissions in the YRD follow a phase of “rapid escalation followed by stabilization.” Overall, consumption-based emissions consistently exceed production-based emissions, characterizing the region as a typical “net carbon importer.” The carbon footprint exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with high-value agglomerations centered in developed cities like Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Nanjing, while southern/western Anhui and southwestern Zhejiang remain at relatively low levels. (2) Regarding embodied carbon transfers, internal carbon flows show strong stability and hierarchy. Anhui serves as the primary net embodied carbon exporter, while Jiangsu and Zhejiang are core recipients, and Shanghai acts as a powerful consumption hub. Dense connections exist between cities in southern Jiangsu and along the Yangtze, while strong internal flows are observed among Zhejiang cities. (3) Comparison shows that historical consumption-based responsibility is significantly higher than production-based responsibility, with a net carbon inflow of 736 Mt. Historical cumulative emissions responsibility shows a “dual differentiation”: consumption-driven cities (Shanghai, etc.) exhibit higher consumption responsibility, while production-bearing cities (Huainan, etc.) are dominated by production responsibility. Correlation analysis shows that the link between per capita emissions and per capita GDP is significantly stronger under the consumption-based accounting perspective, indicating that it better captures the indirect pull of developed cities’ final demand and thus more accurately identifies real differences in responsibility attribution. Finally, quota allocation results reveal how shifting the responsibility perspective affects emissions space. The carbon peaking pathway follows a “rise, stabilize, then slow decline” pattern, with peak emissions expected in 2030 at approximately 1,951.38 Mt. The quota adjustments exhibit significant spatial differentiation. Compared to production-based schemes, the consumption-based equity scheme compresses the future emissions space for core consumption cities (Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, etc.) while relatively relaxing quota constraints for cities in northern Anhui, northern Jiangsu, and parts of western Anhui. This study enriches the theoretical framework of city-level carbon accounting and quota allocation, highlighting the importance of the consumption-based perspective. The conclusions provide a policy basis for an equitable and coordinated low-carbon transition in the YRD, offering practical value for balancing internal responsibility and development needs through differentiated target decomposition.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Kong, Qianhui"],"institution":"Helsingin yliopisto","degree_name":null,"degree_level":null,"degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":[],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2026,"date_issued":"2026-06-25","date_published":"2026-06-25","updated_at":"2026-07-27T19:56:19Z","subjects":["carbon footprint","Yangtze River Delta (YRD)","Carbon peaking","Carbon quota","Equity principle"],"languages":["eng"],"rights":["In Copyright 1.0"],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10138/634332","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Kong, Qianhui"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.accessioned","label":"Dc Date Accessioned","values":["2026-06-25T07:16:23Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2026-06-25T07:16:12Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["2026-06-25"]},{"key":"dc:publisher","label":"Institution","values":["Helsingin yliopisto","University of Helsinki","Helsingfors universitet"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["carbon footprint","Yangtze River Delta (YRD)","Carbon peaking","Carbon quota","Equity principle"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language.iso","label":"Language (ISO)","values":["eng"]},{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["In Copyright 1.0"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["http://hdl.handle.net/10138/634332"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["Under the background of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, the scientifically grounded decomposition of the carbon peaking target to the city level has emerged as a vital issue in China’s climate governance. As one of the regions with the highest economic development and strongest integration, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is a major source of carbon emissions, and its attainment of the carbon peaking target is essential for national goals. However, with intensifying inter-city trade and deepening industrial specialization, emissions responsibility no longer strictly aligns with production activities within administrative boundaries. Traditional production-based accounting fails to comprehensively reflect the true carbon responsibility of cities. Therefore, it is necessary to re-examine the emissions responsibility and equitable distribution among 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from a consumption-based accounting perspective. Focusing on the 41 cities in the YRD, this study constructs an integrated framework of “carbon accounting - carbon prediction - carbon quota allocation.” First, using a city-level MRIO model and carbon data, we measure production-based and consumption-based carbon emissions and identify embodied carbon transfers driven by trade. Second, considering carbon intensity trends and economic growth scenarios, we forecast the carbon peaking pathway, identifying the peaking year and peak level. Finally, under an aggregate constraint, we apply the Equal Cumulative Carbon Per Capita Emissions (ECCPCE) principle to perform the inter-city target decomposition and compare result variants to identify the impact of trade-embodied carbon transfers on the allocation scheme. The results indicate that: (1) Regarding accounting characteristics, both production-based and consumption-based carbon emissions in the YRD follow a phase of “rapid escalation followed by stabilization.” Overall, consumption-based emissions consistently exceed production-based emissions, characterizing the region as a typical “net carbon importer.” The carbon footprint exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with high-value agglomerations centered in developed cities like Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Nanjing, while southern/western Anhui and southwestern Zhejiang remain at relatively low levels. (2) Regarding embodied carbon transfers, internal carbon flows show strong stability and hierarchy. Anhui serves as the primary net embodied carbon exporter, while Jiangsu and Zhejiang are core recipients, and Shanghai acts as a powerful consumption hub. Dense connections exist between cities in southern Jiangsu and along the Yangtze, while strong internal flows are observed among Zhejiang cities. (3) Comparison shows that historical consumption-based responsibility is significantly higher than production-based responsibility, with a net carbon inflow of 736 Mt. Historical cumulative emissions responsibility shows a “dual differentiation”: consumption-driven cities (Shanghai, etc.) exhibit higher consumption responsibility, while production-bearing cities (Huainan, etc.) are dominated by production responsibility. Correlation analysis shows that the link between per capita emissions and per capita GDP is significantly stronger under the consumption-based accounting perspective, indicating that it better captures the indirect pull of developed cities’ final demand and thus more accurately identifies real differences in responsibility attribution. Finally, quota allocation results reveal how shifting the responsibility perspective affects emissions space. The carbon peaking pathway follows a “rise, stabilize, then slow decline” pattern, with peak emissions expected in 2030 at approximately 1,951.38 Mt. The quota adjustments exhibit significant spatial differentiation. Compared to production-based schemes, the consumption-based equity scheme compresses the future emissions space for core consumption cities (Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, etc.) while relatively relaxing quota constraints for cities in northern Anhui, northern Jiangsu, and parts of western Anhui. This study enriches the theoretical framework of city-level carbon accounting and quota allocation, highlighting the importance of the consumption-based perspective. The conclusions provide a policy basis for an equitable and coordinated low-carbon transition in the YRD, offering practical value for balancing internal responsibility and development needs through differentiated target decomposition."]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Urban-Scale Decomposition of Carbon Peaking Targets in the Yangtze River Delta from a Consumption-Based Responsibility Perspective"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:creator":["Kong, Qianhui"],"dc:date.accessioned":["2026-06-25T07:16:23Z"],"dc:date.available":["2026-06-25T07:16:12Z"],"dc:date.issued":["2026-06-25"],"dc:description.abstract":["Under the background of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, the scientifically grounded decomposition of the carbon peaking target to the city level has emerged as a vital issue in China’s climate governance. As one of the regions with the highest economic development and strongest integration, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is a major source of carbon emissions, and its attainment of the carbon peaking target is essential for national goals. However, with intensifying inter-city trade and deepening industrial specialization, emissions responsibility no longer strictly aligns with production activities within administrative boundaries. Traditional production-based accounting fails to comprehensively reflect the true carbon responsibility of cities. Therefore, it is necessary to re-examine the emissions responsibility and equitable distribution among 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from a consumption-based accounting perspective. Focusing on the 41 cities in the YRD, this study constructs an integrated framework of “carbon accounting - carbon prediction - carbon quota allocation.” First, using a city-level MRIO model and carbon data, we measure production-based and consumption-based carbon emissions and identify embodied carbon transfers driven by trade. Second, considering carbon intensity trends and economic growth scenarios, we forecast the carbon peaking pathway, identifying the peaking year and peak level. Finally, under an aggregate constraint, we apply the Equal Cumulative Carbon Per Capita Emissions (ECCPCE) principle to perform the inter-city target decomposition and compare result variants to identify the impact of trade-embodied carbon transfers on the allocation scheme. The results indicate that: (1) Regarding accounting characteristics, both production-based and consumption-based carbon emissions in the YRD follow a phase of “rapid escalation followed by stabilization.” Overall, consumption-based emissions consistently exceed production-based emissions, characterizing the region as a typical “net carbon importer.” The carbon footprint exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with high-value agglomerations centered in developed cities like Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Nanjing, while southern/western Anhui and southwestern Zhejiang remain at relatively low levels. (2) Regarding embodied carbon transfers, internal carbon flows show strong stability and hierarchy. Anhui serves as the primary net embodied carbon exporter, while Jiangsu and Zhejiang are core recipients, and Shanghai acts as a powerful consumption hub. Dense connections exist between cities in southern Jiangsu and along the Yangtze, while strong internal flows are observed among Zhejiang cities. (3) Comparison shows that historical consumption-based responsibility is significantly higher than production-based responsibility, with a net carbon inflow of 736 Mt. Historical cumulative emissions responsibility shows a “dual differentiation”: consumption-driven cities (Shanghai, etc.) exhibit higher consumption responsibility, while production-bearing cities (Huainan, etc.) are dominated by production responsibility. Correlation analysis shows that the link between per capita emissions and per capita GDP is significantly stronger under the consumption-based accounting perspective, indicating that it better captures the indirect pull of developed cities’ final demand and thus more accurately identifies real differences in responsibility attribution. Finally, quota allocation results reveal how shifting the responsibility perspective affects emissions space. The carbon peaking pathway follows a “rise, stabilize, then slow decline” pattern, with peak emissions expected in 2030 at approximately 1,951.38 Mt. The quota adjustments exhibit significant spatial differentiation. Compared to production-based schemes, the consumption-based equity scheme compresses the future emissions space for core consumption cities (Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, etc.) while relatively relaxing quota constraints for cities in northern Anhui, northern Jiangsu, and parts of western Anhui. This study enriches the theoretical framework of city-level carbon accounting and quota allocation, highlighting the importance of the consumption-based perspective. The conclusions provide a policy basis for an equitable and coordinated low-carbon transition in the YRD, offering practical value for balancing internal responsibility and development needs through differentiated target decomposition."],"dc:identifier.uri":["http://hdl.handle.net/10138/634332"],"dc:language.iso":["eng"],"dc:publisher":["Helsingin yliopisto","University of Helsinki","Helsingfors universitet"],"dc:rights":["In Copyright 1.0"],"dc:subject":["carbon footprint","Yangtze River Delta (YRD)","Carbon peaking","Carbon quota","Equity principle"],"dc:title":["Urban-Scale Decomposition of Carbon Peaking Targets in the Yangtze River Delta from a Consumption-Based Responsibility Perspective"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-27T19:56:19Z"}