{"id":{"repo_id":"exeter","oai_identifier":"oai:figshare.com:article/32804315"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/exeter/oai:figshare.com:article/32804315","repository":{"repo_id":"exeter","name":"University of Exeter","base_url":"https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai"},"display":{"title":"Dynamic Poroelastic Finite Element Deformation Modelling of the Bárðarbunga Volcano, Iceland, 2015-2024","abstract":"Monitoring and modelling of ground deformation at volcanoes provides key insights into how a subsurface magmatic system is evolving due to magma movements at depth. Here, we present a dynamic poroelastic-reservoir Finite Element (FE) volcano deformation model. This thesis aims to reproduce the observed post-eruptive (2015 – 2024) deformation of the Bárðarbunga volcano to constrain the likely magma supply and storage characteristics. Initial exploratory modelling was undertaken using 2D-axisymmetric FE models to investigate the general effects on surface deformation of poroelastic reservoir geometry, poroelastic parameters, and the inclusion of a caldera ring fault. Exploratory models demonstrated that poroelastic effects influence deformation even at high reservoir melt fractions, and that a sill-shaped geometry and inclusion of a caldera ring fault focus and amplify deformation directly above the magma reservoir. Analytical (inverse) deformation models provided a preliminary range of likely parameters to inform a more complex FE modelling grid search. Following this, a 3D FE volcano deformation model of the Bárðarbunga volcano was constructed, incorporating independent geological, geophysical, and geochemical data to be as realistic as possible within computational constraints. The model incorporates: a heterogeneous crust informed by a 1D seismic velocity model; real surface topography; a poroelastic magma reservoir informed by past eruptive deposits; and a caldera ring fault which simulates active slip. Our optimal FE model provides a good statistical fit to the horizontal GNSS data. Optimal model parameters suggest a sill-shaped magma reservoir at 12 km depth, with a melt fraction of 85%, and a volume of accumulated magma of ~0.36 km^3 over a nine-year period, equivalent to an average inflow rate of 1.25 m^3/s. Of the 1.9 km^3 of magma extruded during the previous eruption, our models suggest that ~19% has been resupplied, and, assuming a continued linear melt flux, will take ~47 years to be fully resupplied.<p></p>","abstract_html":"Monitoring and modelling of ground deformation at volcanoes provides key insights into how a subsurface magmatic system is evolving due to magma movements at depth. Here, we present a dynamic poroelastic-reservoir Finite Element (FE) volcano deformation model. This thesis aims to reproduce the observed post-eruptive (2015 – 2024) deformation of the Bárðarbunga volcano to constrain the likely magma supply and storage characteristics. Initial exploratory modelling was undertaken using 2D-axisymmetric FE models to investigate the general effects on surface deformation of poroelastic reservoir geometry, poroelastic parameters, and the inclusion of a caldera ring fault. Exploratory models demonstrated that poroelastic effects influence deformation even at high reservoir melt fractions, and that a sill-shaped geometry and inclusion of a caldera ring fault focus and amplify deformation directly above the magma reservoir. Analytical (inverse) deformation models provided a preliminary range of likely parameters to inform a more complex FE modelling grid search. Following this, a 3D FE volcano deformation model of the Bárðarbunga volcano was constructed, incorporating independent geological, geophysical, and geochemical data to be as realistic as possible within computational constraints. The model incorporates: a heterogeneous crust informed by a 1D seismic velocity model; real surface topography; a poroelastic magma reservoir informed by past eruptive deposits; and a caldera ring fault which simulates active slip. Our optimal FE model provides a good statistical fit to the horizontal GNSS data. Optimal model parameters suggest a sill-shaped magma reservoir at 12 km depth, with a melt fraction of 85%, and a volume of accumulated magma of ~0.36 km^3 over a nine-year period, equivalent to an average inflow rate of 1.25 m^3/s. Of the 1.9 km^3 of magma extruded during the previous eruption, our models suggest that ~19% has been resupplied, and, assuming a continued linear melt flux, will take ~47 years to be fully resupplied.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Dan Manns (21044948)"],"institution":null,"degree_name":null,"degree_level":null,"degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":[],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2026,"date_issued":"2026-06-29T00:00:00Z","date_published":"2026-06-29T00:00:00Z","updated_at":"2026-07-27T19:32:24Z","subjects":["Volcanology","Geophysics","Geodesy","Geology","Iceland","Numerical Modelling","Ground Deformation"],"languages":[],"rights":["All rights reserved"],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier","label":"Identifier","values":["10779/exe.32804315.v1"],"render_values":[{"text":"10779/exe.32804315.v1","href":null,"code":true}]}]},"links":{"outbound_url":null,"outbound_label":null,"outbound_source":null},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Dan Manns (21044948)"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date","label":"Dc Date","values":["2026-06-29T00:00:00Z"]},{"key":"dc:relation","label":"Dc Relation","values":["https://figshare.com/articles/thesis/Dynamic_Poroelastic_Finite_Element_Deformation_Modelling_of_the_B_r_arbunga_Volcano_Iceland_2015-2024/32804315"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["Text","Thesis"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["Volcanology","Geophysics","Geodesy","Geology","Iceland","Numerical Modelling","Ground Deformation"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["All rights reserved"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier","label":"Identifier","values":["10779/exe.32804315.v1"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description","label":"Description","values":["Monitoring and modelling of ground deformation at volcanoes provides key insights into how a subsurface magmatic system is evolving due to magma movements at depth. Here, we present a dynamic poroelastic-reservoir Finite Element (FE) volcano deformation model. This thesis aims to reproduce the observed post-eruptive (2015 – 2024) deformation of the Bárðarbunga volcano to constrain the likely magma supply and storage characteristics. Initial exploratory modelling was undertaken using 2D-axisymmetric FE models to investigate the general effects on surface deformation of poroelastic reservoir geometry, poroelastic parameters, and the inclusion of a caldera ring fault. Exploratory models demonstrated that poroelastic effects influence deformation even at high reservoir melt fractions, and that a sill-shaped geometry and inclusion of a caldera ring fault focus and amplify deformation directly above the magma reservoir. Analytical (inverse) deformation models provided a preliminary range of likely parameters to inform a more complex FE modelling grid search. Following this, a 3D FE volcano deformation model of the Bárðarbunga volcano was constructed, incorporating independent geological, geophysical, and geochemical data to be as realistic as possible within computational constraints. The model incorporates: a heterogeneous crust informed by a 1D seismic velocity model; real surface topography; a poroelastic magma reservoir informed by past eruptive deposits; and a caldera ring fault which simulates active slip. Our optimal FE model provides a good statistical fit to the horizontal GNSS data. Optimal model parameters suggest a sill-shaped magma reservoir at 12 km depth, with a melt fraction of 85%, and a volume of accumulated magma of ~0.36 km^3 over a nine-year period, equivalent to an average inflow rate of 1.25 m^3/s. Of the 1.9 km^3 of magma extruded during the previous eruption, our models suggest that ~19% has been resupplied, and, assuming a continued linear melt flux, will take ~47 years to be fully resupplied.<p></p>"]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Dynamic Poroelastic Finite Element Deformation Modelling of the Bárðarbunga Volcano, Iceland, 2015-2024"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:creator":["Dan Manns (21044948)"],"dc:date":["2026-06-29T00:00:00Z"],"dc:description":["Monitoring and modelling of ground deformation at volcanoes provides key insights into how a subsurface magmatic system is evolving due to magma movements at depth. Here, we present a dynamic poroelastic-reservoir Finite Element (FE) volcano deformation model. This thesis aims to reproduce the observed post-eruptive (2015 – 2024) deformation of the Bárðarbunga volcano to constrain the likely magma supply and storage characteristics. Initial exploratory modelling was undertaken using 2D-axisymmetric FE models to investigate the general effects on surface deformation of poroelastic reservoir geometry, poroelastic parameters, and the inclusion of a caldera ring fault. Exploratory models demonstrated that poroelastic effects influence deformation even at high reservoir melt fractions, and that a sill-shaped geometry and inclusion of a caldera ring fault focus and amplify deformation directly above the magma reservoir. Analytical (inverse) deformation models provided a preliminary range of likely parameters to inform a more complex FE modelling grid search. Following this, a 3D FE volcano deformation model of the Bárðarbunga volcano was constructed, incorporating independent geological, geophysical, and geochemical data to be as realistic as possible within computational constraints. The model incorporates: a heterogeneous crust informed by a 1D seismic velocity model; real surface topography; a poroelastic magma reservoir informed by past eruptive deposits; and a caldera ring fault which simulates active slip. Our optimal FE model provides a good statistical fit to the horizontal GNSS data. Optimal model parameters suggest a sill-shaped magma reservoir at 12 km depth, with a melt fraction of 85%, and a volume of accumulated magma of ~0.36 km^3 over a nine-year period, equivalent to an average inflow rate of 1.25 m^3/s. Of the 1.9 km^3 of magma extruded during the previous eruption, our models suggest that ~19% has been resupplied, and, assuming a continued linear melt flux, will take ~47 years to be fully resupplied.<p></p>"],"dc:identifier":["10779/exe.32804315.v1"],"dc:relation":["https://figshare.com/articles/thesis/Dynamic_Poroelastic_Finite_Element_Deformation_Modelling_of_the_B_r_arbunga_Volcano_Iceland_2015-2024/32804315"],"dc:rights":["All rights reserved"],"dc:subject":["Volcanology","Geophysics","Geodesy","Geology","Iceland","Numerical Modelling","Ground Deformation"],"dc:title":["Dynamic Poroelastic Finite Element Deformation Modelling of the Bárðarbunga Volcano, Iceland, 2015-2024"],"dc:type":["Text","Thesis"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-27T19:32:24Z"}