Defeating Cap-and-Trade: Contrarian Access, Organised Disinformation, and the Influence of Fossil Fuel Money in Congress

This dissertation examines how the fossil fuel industry and the broader climate change counter-movement influenced the U.S. congressional debate over cap-and-trade legislation between 2003 and 2010. While extensive scholarship has traced the ideological and institutional foundations of climate denial, less attention has been paid to how organised disinformation and vested economic interests shaped the legislative process itself. By integrating theories of interest group influence with frameworks on climate disinformation, this research investigates three interrelated questions: the extent of contrarian witness representation at congressional hearings, the rhetorical strategies employed to undermine cap-and-trade, and the behavioural responses of committee members to fossil fuel industry contributions. The dissertation combines large-scale text analysis of congressional hearing transcripts with quantitative data on lobbying, campaign contributions, and committee member backgrounds. Using natural language processing and machine learning methods, contrarian policy claims were systematically identified and linked to measures of legislative engagement. The analysis reveals three main findings. First, contrarian witnesses, often aligned with the fossil fuel industry, were disproportionately invited to testify, distorting the scientific consensus within the legislative record. Their presence was significantly and positively correlated with lobbying expenditures and campaign contributions, suggesting that financial resources and organised disinformation were closely intertwined in shaping the legislative debate on cap-and-trade. Second, testimony analysis documents a shift from overt denial to ``solutions-focused scepticism'': claims portraying climate policy as harmful, ineffective, or unnecessary. These rhetorical strategies peaked during key legislative periods and were concentrated among contrarian and industry witnesses. Third, while fossil fuel industry funding did not affect general engagement such as attendance or participation, it was associated with an increase in contrarian claim-making among aligned Republican legislators, reinforcing partisan opposition and shaping the discourse around cap-and-trade in ways that framed reform as less viable. Taken together, the findings demonstrate how economic resources and organised disinformation were closely linked to the obstruction of U.S. climate legislation. The study adds to work on interest group influence and climate politics, showing how entrenched industries can help maintain the policy status quo.<p></p>

Author dc:creator

• Mirjam Nanko (21058127)

• Climate change
• Cap-and-trade
• Climate policy
• Fossil fuel industry
• Lobbying
• Campaign contributions
• Interest groups
• Denialism
• Contrarianism
• CCCM
• Climate disinformation
• Natural language processing
• Machine learning

Statement dc:rights

• CC BY
• Open Access after 2027-02-02

Identifier

10779/exe.31280086.v1

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:figshare.com:article/31280086