Life cycle air pollutant and carbon emissions from China’s road transport under vehicle electrification and renewable electricity expansion scenarios

China’s road transport sector has experienced rapid expansion over the past decades, becoming a major contributor to both air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. As the country transitions toward carbon neutrality, vehicle electrification and renewable electricity (RE) expansion are central to national strategies for mitigating climate and environmental impacts. However, most existing assessments focus on tailpipe emissions and overlook upstream emissions from electricity generation and vehicle and battery manufacturing. Moreover, limited attention has been paid to the spatial heterogeneity of emissions and mitigation potentials across regions. This thesis addresses these critical gaps by developing a spatially and temporally resolved, engineering-based bottom-up modeling framework to quantify life cycle air emissions from China’s road transport sector under a wide range of EV development and RE expansion scenarios from 2020 to 2050. The framework includes 6 types of air emissions—CO, NOₓ, PM2.5, PM10, SO2, and CO2—across 4 life cycle stages: vehicle energy supply chain, vehicle use-phase, vehicle production, and battery production. It also integrates regional electricity mixes, vehicle stock projections, and production distributions for vehicles and batteries to explore both national and regional dynamics of decarbonization. Through comprehensive scenario analysis, this study evaluates the spatial and temporal evolution of emission trajectories, identifies key emission sources, underlying processes, and vehicle types, and assesses the implications of regional prioritization strategies. The findings highlight the importance of adopting a life cycle perspective and coordinated EV and RE development to avoid unintended emission shifts to upstream processes. This thesis also underscores 4 the need for regionally differentiated policy design, considering spatial disparities in electricity carbon intensity, vehicle and battery manufacturing, and electrification readiness. By bridging the gap between tailpipe-focused emission inventories and full life cycle assessments, this research provides a robust analytical foundation for more holistic, effective, and equitable emission mitigation policies in China’s road transport sector. The modeling framework and insights contribute to the academic literature and offer valuable guidance for policymakers working toward a cleaner and low-carbon transport future.<p></p>

Author dc:creator

• Xiang Li (21038195)

• vehicle electrificaiton
• renewable electricity expansion
• China
• life cycle emissions
• road transport

Statement dc:rights

• All rights reserved
• Open Access after 2027-07-12

Identifier

10779/exe.31016371.v1

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:figshare.com:article/31016371